New Market Research Report: Syria Defence & Security Report Q1 2015
New Defense market report from Business Monitor International: "Syria Defence & Security Report Q1 2015"
[USPRwire, Wed Jan 28 2015] Syria remains embroiled in a full-scale civil war. Without any viable political process and in view of the number of armed groups operating in Syria, BMI does not foresee any let up in the violence soo n . Our view is that while the anti-Islamic State coalition has made some strides, the long term effectiveness of this coalition to bring stability to Syria seems rather questionable.
Although the air-strikes carried out by the U.S. led anti-Islamic State coalition have hurt the group hard, we think that their long-term effectiveness is questionable without a longer term strategy on how to remove Assad and bring about a political transition. Without defining a clearer strategy to remove Assad, we think that the U.S. is leaving itself in a dangerous position
In view of Syria's failed economy, BMI estimates indicate that Syria's defence expenditure will finish the year 2014 with a 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) decrease, which would leave the budget at an estimated USD2bn. Depending on the continuing survival of the regime, we do not anticipate any significant growth in defence spending in the years ahead nor do we anticipate the value of imports and exports to change for the remainder of the forecast period ending in 2019.
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Syria's Security Risk Index score has dropped significantly in comparison to before the civil war commenced. For Q115, we have given it a score of a mere 21, which is down from 23 earlier in 2014, and 57 from January 2011. Currently, Syria stands at the bottom of our Security Risk Index for the Middle East. Its average from the end of 2007 is also dropping, and currently stands at 40. We are not envisaging any improvement to these scores over the course of 2015.
* On November 6 2014, the Syrian army recaptured the al-Shaer gas field, 110 kilometres east of Homs, from the Islamic State, who had taken control of the field at the end of October.
* In December 2014, the Assad regime sustained a major setback in northern...
The Syria Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.
BMI's Syria Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Syrian defence and security industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Syria to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Syrian defence and security market.
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